![]() ![]() ![]() And after nearly seven weeks of intense fighting, it is not at all certain Russia can keep up the effort. But it appears its forces are having less success advancing north to join up from Velyka Novosilka, 100km north of Mariupol. Russia still has the ability and desire to attack, and its forces are pressing south of Izyum, a key strategic point, to try to envelop the Ukrainian army that faces the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk territories to the east. The haste of the retreat acknowledges that the invaders are in many respects exhausted and need to concentrate operations, fighting street by street to take Mariupol in the south and a more conventional military campaign in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s forces are dug in. Other estimates from western officials have suggested Russian combat effectiveness may be depleted by a fifth or a sixth, not as high perhaps but still operationally significant. As Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote last week, it could be that Russia has lost “about a quarter of its initial combat force”. The number killed could be anywhere from 7,000 to 15,000, with wounded typically double that, from an invasion force of about 140,000. Russia’s problem is that its forces have taken significant losses from its overoptimistic, poorly planned multi-front attack. And, while it may appear that a re-invasion could happen again at any time, the reality is that unless something dramatic happens elsewhere it cannot succeed. Kyiv too can breathe again: the month of danger has passed and the full withdrawal means that the capital is no longer in range of artillery fire – although it can still be struck by missiles from Belarus, if the Russians bloodymindedly choose to launch them. ![]()
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